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Simulating probability distribution- School Project RRS feed

  • Question

  • An insurance sales company gets new enquiries every day (leads). Its call centre handles these leads by phoning them back. There is a 60% chance of selling a policy to a new lead (conversion) IF the company phones back. If the a lead not handled on the day, it is completely lost. The company receives R250 per conversion. 

    The data sheet contains data for a full year (2016). The number of enquiries differ in probability by the day of the week. The service times follow a probability distribution but it remains constant over the different days of the week. Simulate the 2017 year 100 000 times and calculate how much the company will lose from missed conversions due to calls not followed up. Use 52 weeks (5 days per week) for 2017.

    Week # Day of week New Leads Leads handled that day
    1 1 40 40
    1 2 63 50
    1 3 74 49
    1 4 41 41
    1 5 28 28
    2 1 38 38
    2 2 59 52
    2 3 69 50
    2 4 40 40
    2 5 29 29
    3 1 39 39
    3 2 60 47
    3 3 71 50
    3 4 38 38
    3 5 28 28
    4 1 40 40
    4 2 61 51
    4 3 69 49
    4 4 36 36
    4 5 31 31
    5 1 40 40
    5 2 58 51
    5 3 74 50
    5 4 42 42
    5 5 29 29
    6 1 40 40
    6 2 62 50
    6 3 73 50
    6 4 41 41
    6 5 29 29
    7 1 40 40
    7 2 59 49
    7 3 68 49
    7 4 42 42
    7 5 30 30
    8 1 38 38
    8 2 62 51
    8 3 71 51
    8 4 39 39
    8 5 31 31
    9 1 40 40
    9 2 61 50
    9 3 73 50
    9 4 38 38
    9 5 30 30
    10 1 39 39
    10 2 59 50
    10 3 74 49
    10 4 37 37
    10 5 29 29
    11 1 40 40
    11 2 61 49
    11 3 74 49
    11 4 38 38
    11 5 31 31
    12 1 41 41
    12 2 61 50
    12 3 69 49
    12 4 39 39
    12 5 29 29
    13 1 39 39
    13 2 63 50
    13 3 71 49
    13 4 40 40
    13 5 31 31
    14 1 41 41
    14 2 59 51
    14 3 69 50
    14 4 40 40
    14 5 30 30
    15 1 40 40
    15 2 59 50
    15 3 70 48
    15 4 41 41
    15 5 32 32
    16 1 41 41
    16 2 63 49
    16 3 68 51
    16 4 42 42
    16 5 30 30
    17 1 39 39
    17 2 60 51
    17 3 70 51
    17 4 36 36
    17 5 32 32
    18 1 39 39
    18 2 60 51
    18 3 72 50
    18 4 39 39
    18 5 30 30
    19 1 38 38
    19 2 58 49
    19 3 72 50
    19 4 42 42
    19 5 28 28
    20 1 39 39
    20 2 60 50
    20 3 73 50
    20 4 39 39
    20 5 32 32
    21 1 41 41
    21 2 60 50
    21 3 71 49
    21 4 41 41
    21 5 32 32
    22 1 40 40
    22 2 60 50
    22 3 71 49
    22 4 43 43
    22 5 31 31
    23 1 40 40
    23 2 62 49
    23 3 73 48
    23 4 39 39
    23 5 30 30
    24 1 37 37
    24 2 60 50
    24 3 68 50
    24 4 40 40
    24 5 30 30
    25 1 40 40
    25 2 62 50
    25 3 69 49
    25 4 41 41
    25 5 31 31
    26 1 41 41
    26 2 60 50
    26 3 71 48
    26 4 39 39
    26 5 29 29
    27 1 39 39
    27 2 57 51
    27 3 71 49
    27 4 40 40
    27 5 29 29
    28 1 41 41
    28 2 62 51
    28 3 72 49
    28 4 43 43
    28 5 31 31
    29 1 40 40
    29 2 58 50
    29 3 68 51
    29 4 39 39
    29 5 31 31
    30 1 40 40
    30 2 59 51
    30 3 66 50
    30 4 43 43
    30 5 28 28
    31 1 40 40
    31 2 59 49
    31 3 68 51
    31 4 37 37
    31 5 29 29
    32 1 40 40
    32 2 60 50
    32 3 67 50
    32 4 37 37
    32 5 31 31
    33 1 40 40
    33 2 58 51
    33 3 69 50
    33 4 37 37
    33 5 32 32
    34 1 41 41
    34 2 57 49
    34 3 70 49
    34 4 40 40
    34 5 30 30
    35 1 40 40
    35 2 61 51
    35 3 69 51
    35 4 41 41
    35 5 29 29
    36 1 41 41
    36 2 58 49
    36 3 70 50
    36 4 41 41
    36 5 28 28
    37 1 41 41
    37 2 59 49
    37 3 69 51
    37 4 41 41
    37 5 29 29
    38 1 41 41
    38 2 59 49
    38 3 68 51
    38 4 39 39
    38 5 29 29
    39 1 41 41
    39 2 59 49
    39 3 72 48
    39 4 40 40
    39 5 30 30
    40 1 40 40
    40 2 60 50
    40 3 73 49
    40 4 38 38
    40 5 30 30
    41 1 41 41
    41 2 56 51
    41 3 70 51
    41 4 39 39
    41 5 29 29
    42 1 40 40
    42 2 60 51
    42 3 70 50
    42 4 41 41
    42 5 30 30
    43 1 42 42
    43 2 56 48
    43 3 74 49
    43 4 42 42
    43 5 30 30
    44 1 40 40
    44 2 62 52
    44 3 69 49
    44 4 42 42
    44 5 31 31
    45 1 41 41
    45 2 59 49
    45 3 70 50
    45 4 44 44
    45 5 28 28
    46 1 39 39
    46 2 60 49
    46 3 70 50
    46 4 39 39
    46 5 30 30
    47 1 40 40
    47 2 59 52
    47 3 68 51
    47 4 36 36
    47 5 30 30
    48 1 39 39
    48 2 59 51
    48 3 69 50
    48 4 41 41
    48 5 29 29
    49 1 40 40
    49 2 62 50
    49 3 65 51
    49 4 41 41
    49 5 28 28
    50 1 40 40
    50 2 63 50
    50 3 72 50
    50 4 38 38
    50 5 30 30
    51 1 42 42
    51 2 60 50
    51 3 72 50
    51 4 41 41
    51 5 31 31
    52 1 41 41
    52 2 64 48
    52 3 69 49
    52 4 40 40
    52 5 31 31

    Monday, October 9, 2017 7:17 PM

All replies

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    Tuesday, October 10, 2017 12:45 AM