# Simulating probability distribution- School Project

• ### Question

• An insurance sales company gets new enquiries every day (leads). Its call centre handles these leads by phoning them back. There is a 60% chance of selling a policy to a new lead (conversion) IF the company phones back. If the a lead not handled on the day, it is completely lost. The company receives R250 per conversion.

The data sheet contains data for a full year (2016). The number of enquiries differ in probability by the day of the week. The service times follow a probability distribution but it remains constant over the different days of the week. Simulate the 2017 year 100 000 times and calculate how much the company will lose from missed conversions due to calls not followed up. Use 52 weeks (5 days per week) for 2017.

 Week # Day of week New Leads Leads handled that day 1 1 40 40 1 2 63 50 1 3 74 49 1 4 41 41 1 5 28 28 2 1 38 38 2 2 59 52 2 3 69 50 2 4 40 40 2 5 29 29 3 1 39 39 3 2 60 47 3 3 71 50 3 4 38 38 3 5 28 28 4 1 40 40 4 2 61 51 4 3 69 49 4 4 36 36 4 5 31 31 5 1 40 40 5 2 58 51 5 3 74 50 5 4 42 42 5 5 29 29 6 1 40 40 6 2 62 50 6 3 73 50 6 4 41 41 6 5 29 29 7 1 40 40 7 2 59 49 7 3 68 49 7 4 42 42 7 5 30 30 8 1 38 38 8 2 62 51 8 3 71 51 8 4 39 39 8 5 31 31 9 1 40 40 9 2 61 50 9 3 73 50 9 4 38 38 9 5 30 30 10 1 39 39 10 2 59 50 10 3 74 49 10 4 37 37 10 5 29 29 11 1 40 40 11 2 61 49 11 3 74 49 11 4 38 38 11 5 31 31 12 1 41 41 12 2 61 50 12 3 69 49 12 4 39 39 12 5 29 29 13 1 39 39 13 2 63 50 13 3 71 49 13 4 40 40 13 5 31 31 14 1 41 41 14 2 59 51 14 3 69 50 14 4 40 40 14 5 30 30 15 1 40 40 15 2 59 50 15 3 70 48 15 4 41 41 15 5 32 32 16 1 41 41 16 2 63 49 16 3 68 51 16 4 42 42 16 5 30 30 17 1 39 39 17 2 60 51 17 3 70 51 17 4 36 36 17 5 32 32 18 1 39 39 18 2 60 51 18 3 72 50 18 4 39 39 18 5 30 30 19 1 38 38 19 2 58 49 19 3 72 50 19 4 42 42 19 5 28 28 20 1 39 39 20 2 60 50 20 3 73 50 20 4 39 39 20 5 32 32 21 1 41 41 21 2 60 50 21 3 71 49 21 4 41 41 21 5 32 32 22 1 40 40 22 2 60 50 22 3 71 49 22 4 43 43 22 5 31 31 23 1 40 40 23 2 62 49 23 3 73 48 23 4 39 39 23 5 30 30 24 1 37 37 24 2 60 50 24 3 68 50 24 4 40 40 24 5 30 30 25 1 40 40 25 2 62 50 25 3 69 49 25 4 41 41 25 5 31 31 26 1 41 41 26 2 60 50 26 3 71 48 26 4 39 39 26 5 29 29 27 1 39 39 27 2 57 51 27 3 71 49 27 4 40 40 27 5 29 29 28 1 41 41 28 2 62 51 28 3 72 49 28 4 43 43 28 5 31 31 29 1 40 40 29 2 58 50 29 3 68 51 29 4 39 39 29 5 31 31 30 1 40 40 30 2 59 51 30 3 66 50 30 4 43 43 30 5 28 28 31 1 40 40 31 2 59 49 31 3 68 51 31 4 37 37 31 5 29 29 32 1 40 40 32 2 60 50 32 3 67 50 32 4 37 37 32 5 31 31 33 1 40 40 33 2 58 51 33 3 69 50 33 4 37 37 33 5 32 32 34 1 41 41 34 2 57 49 34 3 70 49 34 4 40 40 34 5 30 30 35 1 40 40 35 2 61 51 35 3 69 51 35 4 41 41 35 5 29 29 36 1 41 41 36 2 58 49 36 3 70 50 36 4 41 41 36 5 28 28 37 1 41 41 37 2 59 49 37 3 69 51 37 4 41 41 37 5 29 29 38 1 41 41 38 2 59 49 38 3 68 51 38 4 39 39 38 5 29 29 39 1 41 41 39 2 59 49 39 3 72 48 39 4 40 40 39 5 30 30 40 1 40 40 40 2 60 50 40 3 73 49 40 4 38 38 40 5 30 30 41 1 41 41 41 2 56 51 41 3 70 51 41 4 39 39 41 5 29 29 42 1 40 40 42 2 60 51 42 3 70 50 42 4 41 41 42 5 30 30 43 1 42 42 43 2 56 48 43 3 74 49 43 4 42 42 43 5 30 30 44 1 40 40 44 2 62 52 44 3 69 49 44 4 42 42 44 5 31 31 45 1 41 41 45 2 59 49 45 3 70 50 45 4 44 44 45 5 28 28 46 1 39 39 46 2 60 49 46 3 70 50 46 4 39 39 46 5 30 30 47 1 40 40 47 2 59 52 47 3 68 51 47 4 36 36 47 5 30 30 48 1 39 39 48 2 59 51 48 3 69 50 48 4 41 41 48 5 29 29 49 1 40 40 49 2 62 50 49 3 65 51 49 4 41 41 49 5 28 28 50 1 40 40 50 2 63 50 50 3 72 50 50 4 38 38 50 5 30 30 51 1 42 42 51 2 60 50 51 3 72 50 51 4 41 41 51 5 31 31 52 1 41 41 52 2 64 48 52 3 69 49 52 4 40 40 52 5 31 31

Monday, October 9, 2017 7:17 PM

### All replies

• You'll elicit a lot more help and a lot less flak if you show that you have
approach/algorithm in prose and pseudo-code. Show the code you have written
so far, and describe precisely where it is that you are stuck.

If you just want suggestions as to how best to approach the task, please
state so. Otherwise, just posting the complete assignment description looks
like you're hoping someone will offer you a coded solution.

We don't mind helping students get past sticking points in their assignments
but we do mind being expected to do the bulk of the work for them. So the
more you can narrow down your request for assistance to a very particular
part of the assignment, the greater the likelihood that you'll get timely
and narrowly-focused suggestions.

- Wayne

Tuesday, October 10, 2017 12:45 AM