Gap on the first day forecast analyst (by Microsoft Time Series Algorithm)

Question

HI , I created data mining model from Microsoft time series ,a daily forecast of store revenue  but in Part of the stores the report get a gap down , the value of the first day to forecast is very low  and not valid , way ther gap is created ?????

 Thanks , Avi Ariel

 

 

Answer 1

Can you tell us what forecasting algorithm you are using (ARIMA, ARTXP or mix of both)? Default value is mix of both.

How much data was the model trained on? It is recommended to have at least 3 x <periodicity of your data>, so probably 3 years of data in your case.

Also, the images don't look like they came from data mining model viewer. Do you see the same gap when you view the model in the model viewer?

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Tatyana Yakushev [PredixionSoftware.com]

Answer 2

hi , Thanks for the help

i using the algorithm of both (ARIMA,ARTXP) , the parameter algorithm set to default ,

the image is from ssrs chart ,after ssis package run data mining query task and create an forecast  table in the db(the gap in the table also ) , and in model viewer the forecast looking O.K. without the gap but in minnig model prediction tab i start to see the gap in the data  , so way I get the gap ????? 

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avi ariel

Answer 3

Does SSIS package provide any input data for the model or do you get predictions using data in the mining model? (that is, do you expect to see same or different charts in mining model viewer and reporting services)?

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Tatyana Yakushev [PredixionSoftware.com]