New to Datamining using SQL 2005. Trying to do a forecast for oil production but still missing the boat

Question

Hi and thank you in advance

I have the following data
WellID
WellName
OilVolume
GasVolume
ProductionDate
Downtime   how long the well was down
DownTimeReason
LocationHierarchy(Location,Platform,Asset,Well)

1) I am trying to do predictive analysis on this data, for future well production
2) Do predictive analysis of downtime cause and when it might occur (downtime reason can be, technical cause, weather cause, etc)

I am trying to see how it can be done, what algorithm to use and how to decipher the end result.
Thank you

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Tomas

Answer 1

Hi,

I would start with the data mining tutorials that are part of Books On Line for SQL Server 2005. I guess that Decision Trees can be a good start. They work with all types of data. If downtime is in hours you can discretize hours into buckets like 1-5 hours, 5-10 hours and so on. In Decision Trees you set downtime as predict and the other attributes as input.

HTH
Thomas Ivarsson

Answer 2

Hi
thank you. But I was trying to see if in SQL 2005 there was a forecasting model like there is in SQL 2008. I just can not find it anywhere.
Thank you

Tomas

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Tomas

Answer 3

With decision trees you train a model first and when new data arrives you use that model for prediction. As I understood you problem you would like to see what attributes that can explain downtime and then put in new data in to this model to make predictions. Forecast or Time series as the algorithm is called would probably not work in that scenario.

BR
Thomas Ivarsson

Answer 4

Hi and thank you in advance

I have the following data
WellID
WellName
OilVolume
GasVolume
ProductionDate
Downtime   how long the well was down
DownTimeReason
LocationHierarchy(Location,Platform,Asset,Well)

1) I am trying to do predictive analysis on this data, for future well production
2) Do predictive analysis of downtime cause and when it might occur (downtime reason can be, technical cause, weather cause, etc)

I am trying to see how it can be done, what algorithm to use and how to decipher the end result.
Thank you

---

Tomas

The Time Series model type will give you an idea of future predicted volumes. I am not sure you have the right variables for predicting downtime. Even though you have the "reason" I am not sure this will be specific enough. It looks like this is an LPO system. Do you have any of the operating stats to help with the prediction of downtime? type of well, type of lift, associated plant etc etc. Allan

Answer 5

Hi Allan

Yes I do have those attributes such as . Type of Well (Oil or Gas) , type of Lift (GL,FL)..but my issue is trying to predict downtime by well , how much of downtime, and then predict or Forecast Oil Production utilizing downtime information. Please note that at this moment I am using SQL 2005 still, 2008 is not until later. The same goes with Excel 2003 and Data Mining add-in.
Thank you for any help

Tomas

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Tomas

Answer 6

Hi Allan

Yes I do have those attributes such as . Type of Well (Oil or Gas) , type of Lift (GL,FL)..but my issue is trying to predict downtime by well , how much of downtime, and then predict or Forecast Oil Production utilizing downtime information. Please note that at this moment I am using SQL 2005 still, 2008 is not until later. The same goes with Excel 2003 and Data Mining add-in.
Thank you for any help

Tomas

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Tomas

Tomas 2K5 has the time series Algorithm (using ARTxP). To predict if a well is going to go "pop" Take the system attributes we have spoken about. also take the date attribute and break it up into constituent parts. Hour of day etc, day of week etc. My model would look something like The attributes would be the values some period before the actual well goes pop, maybe a day. It is pointless doing mining, learning the well may go pop and it will do so in 20 seconds as you will have no way of reacting. Make sense? As for downtime. You could start with averaging values by day. It may be that you can see a trend building over time with your system measurements that allows us to model using time how long you will have as downtime in the coming periods. You can also look at other algorithms like DTs and NN. HTH allan

Answer 7

it would seem from my previous post that things got stripped

My model might look something like

AttributeA

AttributeB

etc

WellGoesPop PREDICT

WellDowntime PREDICT

Answer 8

Thank you for all the help.

Tomas

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Tomas